So, what does the year ahead look like for our refrigerated town on the High Plains? After 12 months of tough sledding real-estate-wise, don’t expect a thaw anytime soon…but don’t pack your bags, either. People who make a living predicting the market are saying, all things considered, you’re better off here.

Jack O’Connor, author of a market report for RE/MAX Professionals, sees chilly weather ahead for the highest price ranges, and solid appreciation for people who own homes under $250,000.

“I’m still very bullish on Denver,” economist Patty Silverstein told me this week. She’s president of Research Development Partners, consulting chief economist for the Metro Denver Economic Development Corp. and for the Chamber.

The big factor impacting residential real estate is employment, and Silverstein sees slightly brighter prospects there. “Year 2010 will see a glimmer of hope,” she said, adding that we’re likely to continue losing some jobs early on…firming up later, with the odds favoring a slight increase for the year
That kind of late growth, however, will do little to jump-start the high-end housing market, says Jack O’Connor, who authors a monthly report for RE/MAX Professionals that was surprisingly accurate in predicting lower-end appreciation this past year. At the highest end, the Denver area still has way too much inventory and way too few buyers. If you own a house below $250,000, the forecast is much warmer…some price increases…maybe even multiple offers, once you put the sign up.
“If you have a nice home (priced below $250,000), you’re going to see 4 to 6
percent appreciation in 2010,” O’Connor adds.
In the million-dollar range, prospects are still glacial. Current inventory of 1,100 single-family homes at a million-plus (only 240 closed during the year as of Dec. 30) will take years to absorb. For million-dollar condos, says O’Connor, the temperature drops even more.
Meanwhile, you’re living in a place with a future in aerospace, bioscience, software, and energy…industries hit by the recession, but with temperate long-term prospects.
“You need to look beyond to what the opportunities can be,” Silverstein said.
Colorado, she adds, is perceived by the nation as a very attractive place to live…one that appeals to entrepreneurial types. “That will help us,” she adds.
If you’re selling in the high end, don’t expect improvement in 2010…and,
O’Connor adds, figure that interest rates, which have stayed low for a long time,
could likely climb late in the year. At the low end, watch for the continuing federal tax credit to play an abnormally large role in motivating sales. And remember…it only applies to contracts written by April 30.
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Mayor Andrew Moore of Erie, left, joins builder-owners Cat and Kirk Velarde and their Kentwood Cherry Creek agent Paula King, in front of a 5-bedroom ranch on the re-sale market at $597,000.

And don’t forget new Erie High School, on the Weld side of town on the way out to I-25. A few years back Erie was losing students, due to open enrollment. Now ACT scores, Moore notes, are way up…and the school is actually drawing enrollments from other towns. “This is so much closer to downtown,” says Kentwood Cherry Creek agent Paula King, who lives in Erie Village, where she’ll show you the 2,699-foot, 5-bedroom ranch that has another 3,000 down in the basement, with movie screening room and other goodies. It’s at $597,000…a “steal” King says…all the more so if you live in Boulder proper, where, she adds, it would be priced well over a million.

Builder Kirk Velarde did it in 2003 as his personal home in Erie Village, where he’s built five of the surrounding homes. Velarde and King both note that the buyer profile is heavily ‘California’–relocating families taking advantage of lower prices and a 12–minute commute into the high-tech Gunbarrel corridor. King was headed to an afternoon get-together the Erie Village locals refer to as “FACs”——Friday afternoon cocktails——saying goodbye to a neighbor moving BACK to California. But that, says Mayor Moore, is not the trend.
“ConocoPhillips is still expecting 7,000 employees (at its campus on the Boulder Turnpike),” said Moore, who in his other life is an exec at Sun Microsystems. “Even if they end up with 3,500, that’s still larger than Sun.” Erie already has commuter “Jump” bus service into Boulder…and is close to a site for a multimodal station that would be part of a future expansion of FasTracks.
“We didn’t get hit as high in foreclosures here,” Moore adds, noting that Erie’s 100 home starts for 2009 is up from last year, and ranks as some of the largest construction underway in Boulder County.

WHERE: Custom ranch plan in Erie Village, 5 bedrooms. 1306 Allen Ave., Erie

PRICE: $597,000
PHONE: 303-601-2880

After 15 years that saw Lowry morph from air base to new urban community, you can be there today when the golden spike is set in Lowry’s vast park system: the opening of the Great Lawn, to become one of the largest parks in Denver.

The track team from Bishop Machebeuf High School gets a preview workout on The Great Lawn, adjacent to their campus, prior to today’s opening.

The Great Lawn and its adjoining parkland are close to being Denver’s largest park (that honor rests with City Park, 330 acres). By 2010, the park you’ll see today will be linked to the an even larger parcel forming the northern end of the Great Lawn, with trail links into pretty neighborhoods along Sixth Avenue and Crescent Park. Meanwhile, the south end of the Great Lawn, close to its centerpiece amphitheater, is across from Lowry Sports Park with Jackie Robinson Field…and beyond that, 200-acre Common Grounds golf course. Soon, you’ll be able to walk or ride two miles from north to south, through 800 acres, without bumping into a building.

“This has been a dream of mine to get this completed,” Tom Markham, Lowry Redevelopment Executive Director, told me as we stood atop the amphitheater. Behind us, in the direction of the new golf course, are new neighborhoods by David Weekley, McStain, Harvard Communities, Standard Pacific and Colorado Community Land Trust, that will have the Great Lawn as a link to the attractions on the west side of Lowry, including Lowry Town Center with its restaurants and shops. Eight Lowry builders have special open houses today…desserts, special incentives, and at some, certificates for a bucket-of-balls on the driving range.

You can also visit open houses west of the park…Hangar Lofts near Wings over the Rockies, Jaydyn Court, and Luce (Italian “Loochay”), opening its model today at Lowry Town Center. “With its park system, Lowry is the perfect example of a new urban lifestyle where you can work, live, shop, dine and play, without getting into your car,” says Cate Dobson with Luce, who with other builders will have booths today on The Great Lawn, where you can get directions and hear about special incentives.

To reach the opening, picnic and other events, take Lowry Boulevard east from Quebec, 0.7 mile to the second roundabout, and watch for parking in EastPark. Prices start from the low $100s in East Park, lofts and patio homes from the $4s…and customs to $1 million.
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IF YOU GO….
WHERE: Grand opening of The Great Lawn at Lowry, Denver’s newest park and one of the largest; free Frisbees, $3 barbecue lunch, band Opie Gone Bad, kids’ bounce-house, builder open houses with free desserts & incentives. Take Lowry Blvd east from Quebec 0.7 mi. to 2nd traffic circle (Yosemite Way), follow signs.

PRICE: From low $100s to $1 million
WHEN: Today, 10 a.m. – 5 p.m., ceremony 11 a.m., band until 2
WEB: Lowry.org

Montclair neighborhood just west of Lowry has lots going for it, including good access to Lowry’s Town Center, lower prices than much of the surrounding area, along with some of Denver’s most eclectic architecture…such as a contemporary house you can tour this afternoon that could as likely be a few blocks off Hollywood Boulevard as Denver.

Mable Sutton of Leonard-Leonard & Associates, who partners John Patterson, has the listing on 7070 Richthofen, with modern architecture in Montclair.

Realtors aren’t sure who designed 7070 Richthofen Parkway, built in 1978…but it might have been lifted from Dr. Seuss–modern, and more than a little offbeat, even some rococo twists and turns. “It’s a perfect single-family alternative for somebody who might want a loft, but doesn’t want an HOA,” says Realtor Mable Sutton of Leonard Leonard, who’s partnering on the listing with David Patterson.

It’s over 1,700 feet finished…on three levels…well, make that four…well actually, make that six. Entry on one level…then step downs to a sunken living room with fireplace; to a kitchen dining area; up to a dining room; a secondary bedroom/bath on its own level; an office on another; and a wandering master that’s all by itself.
Including the master, most have open overlooks of the areas below. Cat-in-the-Hat style, you can rise from the master designer tub and, without bothering to put on a towel, wave to your guests in the living room below!
You can also exit the bedroom or study onto balconies that lead by steel staircase to a rooftop deck, tucked up against an arched skylight from the entry area below. The kitchen has had a recent makeover in Euro-style cabinets, tile walls, stainless appliances and a basin-style sink. There’s a covered carport and a big basement for storage.
No. 7070 is two blocks from Montclair Park…just as close to two others. Sutton likes Lowry’s Town Center with its shopping, dining and coffee places, a 12-block walk. “Town Center has locally owned, mom-and-pop places,” she added. “It helps the economy for people to be spending money close to home.”
The house is priced at $479,000.
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If you go…